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Alright, that’s enough housekeeping. Basketball is back this week, and that’s where we’ll focus today.
The NBA has New Broadcast Partners and It Feels Like a Miracle
NBC had me at the player introductions. Or maybe even a few minutes before that, when they opened with an aerial shot of the OKC capitol building and Mike Tirico set the scene. There had been months of talk about the return of Roundball Rock, which was predictably great, but everything that came afterward caught me off guard. The in-arena intros saw Steven Adams greeted with cheers from Thunder fans who watched him in OKC for seven years (which reminded me why I love sports) and raucous boos for Kevin Durant (which also reminded me why I love sports, and made me twice as excited to watch the game). Tirico’s play-by-play brought gravitas that made the game feel bigger, Reggie Miller and Jamal Crawford were fun all night, and we got the first installment of a long-awaited Michael Jordan interview, which was four minutes long and mostly about why he agreed to do an interview, along with a memories of free throw he made at house he rented during the Ryder Cup (it was great!). And, of course, the game itself delivered on all counts—a double OT, one-point Thunder win. Altogether, I left the first night of the NBA season amazed at how much fun I had.
Last week Ben Golliver and I opened Greatest of All Talk with a 30-minute discussion of the NBA’s new broadcast partners. If you missed the news, Amazon and NBC/Peacock will join the league (or re-join, in NBC’s case) for the next 11 years, as part of a $76 billion rights package that was finalized last year. ESPN will continue as a third broadcaster and will host the NBA Finals and Christmas Day Games. TNT is out, but the network’s very talented announcing diaspora has been spread between Amazon and NBC. TNT’s Inside the NBA, the greatest sports studio show of all time, has been licensed by ESPN and will continue its run over there (and was very good Wednesday and Thursday). Amazon will begin its NBA broadcasts Friday night and is set to host the NBA Cup.
Golliver wrote about the new deals at the Washington Post, and noted that NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has worked with the league’s new partners and “expressed a desire for NBA programming to ‘educate and celebrate’ rather than spark angry debates or denigrate the modern game.” On Tuesday night and in the days since, a number of folks on Twitter credited the NBC success to exactly that sort of tone shift, taking veiled shots at the talking heads on ESPN and TNT.
The focus on the tone of the previous broadcasting era isn’t quite right, though, in part because the occasionally surly candor of Inside the NBA is wonderful, and most fans loved basketball on TNT. More importantly, focusing on the tone of coverage undersells the extent of the league’s ESPN problem and the years-long grind that was underlying some of this week’s euphoria. NBC’s broadcast delighted fans not only because their production choices were all pretty good, but also because ESPN’s coverage of the NBA has been so frustrating, in so many ways, for so many years.
For one thing, on a basic level, the presentation of ESPN’s broadcasts is just clumsier than what NBC debuted on Tuesday. ESPN productions rarely elevate the game with either storytelling or music, and while I’m not an expert in this area, the claims that NBC’s cameras are higher quality certainly match my eye test. ESPN’s announcing teams have never been great, either, but it’s been particularly rough the past few years. Meanwhile, the pregame and postgame studio show was a mess for 15 years as it cycled through multiple hosts and dozens of experts (and loaded every show with commercials). A 2021 solution saw the network lean on a producer of “First Take” for a new direction, and his big idea was to build the show around “bold opinions” from Mike Greenberg, Michael Wilbon, and Stephen A. Smith. The show has been through several more iterations since then; Inside The NBA’s licensing deal will hopefully mean the end of those experiments.
When NBC aired the in-arena intros Tuesday night, it reminded me that ESPN abandoned that practice in 2014, only to be shamed into bringing it back halfway through last year’s Finals, because fans were loudly complaining about the state of the broadcasts. All of it has suboptimal for both basketball fans and the league itself, and it led us to a place where Game 1 of the NBA season on NBC felt like a bigger spectacle than Game 1 of the NBA Finals on ABC in June.
But production quality was only one aspect of the problem. At the Finals two years ago, ESPN opened its Mavs-Celtics coverage with Adrian Wojnarowski on the pregame show promoting a story about the Lakers chasing UConn’s Danny Hurley to be their head coach. This was the biggest stage basketball has, and there was Woj, the most prominent NBA reporter at the network, trying to make people believe the Lakers weren’t hiring J.J. Redick, as had been reported for weeks, minutes before Redick broadcast the Finals for ESPN and ABC. No one believed the Hurley story, and why it was foisted on the masses is its own mystery, but more importantly, this was the league’s flagship broadcaster beginning its NBA Finals coverage with breathless reporting on who the eighth-seeded Lakers might hire as coach instead of promoting the most important product the NBA has. I remember it vividly because I felt like I was going insane watching it happen.
This season, ESPN began the preseason with Shams Charania, the replacement as newsbreaker-in-chief after Woj retired, reporting that Giannis Antetokounmpo was interested in a trade to the Knicks. Nevermind that the Knicks had nothing to offer the Bucks, that Giannis has never confirmed any of this publicly, and that even according to Charania, these talks fizzled instantly. The story seemed to confirm earlier reports from Charania this summer that Giannis was considering requesting a trade, and because it was broadcast by a cable channel with endless hours of news windows to fill, “Giannis to the Knicks??” became a mainstream story that insulted everyone’s intelligence for about 96 hours. It created the impression that Giannis is unhappy, cast a pall over Bucks season before it even began, and to what end? Who was that story for? It would be one thing if an insider like Charania had a policy of reporting every phone call he heard about, but I’m confident he doesn’t, because it would cost him access to future transaction news, which he clearly prioritizes.
In July, NBA free agency opened with Rich Paul, CEO of Klutch Sports, sending a note to Charania, telling the world that Klutch and its client LeBron James “consider the Lakers as a critical part of his career,” but “want to evaluate what’s best for LeBron at this stage in his life and career.” LeBron went silent for the ensuing four months, allowing Paul’s statement to speak for him. Then two weeks ago, when Charania broke the news that LeBron would miss the beginning of the season with a surprising case of sciatica, ESPN’s Dave McMenamin intoned:
“If, while he is out, they are struggling, that could lead to the next step we could see at some point this season… Remember when Shams was told by Rich Paul that they’d be watching every move because the priority at this stage is to win? If they’re not winning, maybe he’s going to have to go elsewhere.”
For anyone who’s unfamiliar with the NBA, let me decode what’s happening there: An aging LeBron wasn’t offered a contract extension by the Lakers. He then used a friendly reporter in Charania to telegraph his displeasure to the world. He is now sitting out with an injury and may demand a trade, as telegraphed by another friendly reporter in McMenamin. A trade demand would, of course, lead to a whole new cycle of cryptic reports from Charania and McMenamin.
I can’t emphasize enough how little I care about any of that, and I think most sports fans feel the same way. But those are the sorts of stories that have been consistently foregrounded in the modern NBA media environment. Meanwhile, as Golliver noted, “Game 1 of this year’s Finals on ABC drew 10.3 million viewers, down from 15.1 million viewers for the comparable game in 2019, the last year before the coronavirus pandemic, and 20.4 million viewers in 2017, which was the highest mark of the post-Jordan era.” The league’s $76 billion TV deal makes clear the decline is not catastrophic, but it’s nevertheless real, with this chart from Sports Media Watch as another data point:
People will give you all kinds of explanations for the NBA’s waning popularity, and most of them will be true to varying degrees. For example, the NBA first moved to cable in 2002, when Disney and ESPN tripled the rights fees that NBC had been paying, promised more windows for games and round-the-clock integration with ESPN shows, and a cable platform that could attract younger audiences. Today, however, almost no young people have cable, and while many have access to ESPN, that was less true of TNT, and many of the cable RSNs (which broadcast the majority of local games) are barely surviving and have smaller audiences than ever. So that’s one problem. The NBA’s regular season is also about 20 games too long, and fans correctly intuit that individual games are not that important, which teams themselves confirm by periodically resting stars. There’s another.
With ten times more entertainment options than there were in 2002, it’s easier than ever to check out on the league, and not everyone makes it back. Meanwhile, the NBA has always been a superstar-driven league, and that same fractured media environment makes it much harder to cultivate the kinds of mainstream superstars that have traditionally carried the league and created new fans. All those headwinds matter, but in the course of sports media’s bi-annual conversations about declining NBA interest, I think ESPN’s role has been underappreciated.
Mind you, I once worked for ESPN, and continue to respect and avidly consume lots of their NBA coverage (Brian Windhorst is the best NBA journalist alive), but it seems obvious that if mass appeal is the goal, then it’s a big problem if the league is relying on a flagship broadcaster that a) hasn’t been very good at broadcasting games, and b) often discusses the sport as if the games themselves aren’t enough to hold anyone’s attention.
The latter problem is structural, and not entirely ESPN’s fault. Like the league itself, ESPN is trying to retain audience in an increasingly fractured media environment, only ESPN is also accounting for dozens of hours of weekly programming in addition to the games themselves. That means caustic MVP debates, bizarre legacy arguments, creating and responding to Twitter narratives, half-baked rumors, and an emphasis on breaking transaction news a few minutes before the teams themselves announce the news. As a basketball podcaster who records four hours of content every week, I identify with every ESPN impulse except the last one. If I were running the league, however, I might be pretty annoyed with a partner that habitually creates and amplifies stories that make the league’s biggest stars look annoying and the league’s news cycle look exhausting.
The NBA’s new broadcast partners present no such concerns. That’s part of why this new era represents a healthier change than I realized when the deals were announced last year. NBC and Amazon should be an improvement over the recent past not because of kinder, gentler coverage, but because ultimately, they just want to broadcast the games. They will have better cameras, better announcers, and fewer astroturfed Lakers rumors or half-baked Giannis trades shoved into the pregame show, because there is no news business to sustain. That distinction is easy to overlook, but it may prove to be important.
The NBA is exiting a decade in which many of its most powerful stakeholders were under the impression that unlocking the league’s full financial potential meant selling 365 days of basketball news. The next few years are an opportunity to return to merely selling basketball.
How Will Peacock Pay for This?
Speaking of the new broadcast environment, the Wall Street Journal poses a related question: NBCUniversal Made a $27 Billion Bet on the NBA. Will It Pay Off? From the story:
Soon after NBCUniversal finalized a $27 billion rights deal with the NBA last year, executives met in Los Angeles to discuss their new prize. The deal was expected to bring in new audiences and help keep streaming subscribers and TV viewers happy, but was going to be a money loser in the near term, an executive told the group, according to people familiar with the gathering.
[…] In the early years of the deal, losses are projected to be between $500 million and $1.4 billion annually, people familiar with the matter said. … For the deal to be considered a success for NBCU, Peacock would need to see significant subscriber growth. The streaming service’s base of subscribers lags behind its rivals.
I may cover streaming in more depth next week, but for now we can state the obvious: If NBC is hoping that new Peacock subscriptions will help fund its $27 billion NBA deal, that’s almost certainly going to lead to disappointment. The NBA’s audience skews younger, and one thing young people don’t like to do is pay for things they can find for free elsewhere. Any games that are paywalled on Peacock are likely to draw tiny audiences for exactly that reason. Amazon, with nearly 200 million Prime subscribers in the U.S. (compared to about 68 million cable subscribers) will be a far more interesting experiment for the NBA and its ability to reach new audiences on a streaming platform.
Regardless, it’s hard for me to get too worked up over the risks NBC is assuming, because the economics of almost every investment, by every non-Netflix company, throughout the entire history of the streaming, have also been irrational and unlikely to pencil out. And good news for NBC executives: as of Sunday, I am now paying $16.99 as a Peacock Premium Plus subscriber. It’s a start!
The Final Edition of Bet Your Mortgage Locks?
Every year on Greatest of All Talk I choose five over/under bets as my “Bet Your Mortgage Locks,” with the important disclaimer that you should NOT bet your mortgage on any of these picks. Unfortunately, the gambling problems both inside the league and outside the league are getting so grim that I may have to rebrand this segment in the years to come.
In any event, sportsbooks have closed their books for ’25-’26 win totals, so even if you wanted to bet your mortgage, you missed your chance! For posterity’s sake, then, and to celebrate the beginning of the NBA season, I’ll close by sharing the picks from Monday’s GOAT.
Wolves — OVER 49.5. This is faith on prime Anthony Edwards, plain and simple. He’s 24 years old and easily the most magnetic young star the NBA has, but his charisma and highlights tend to obscure the two qualities I find the most encouraging. First, Ant has dramatically improved different aspects of his game (shooting, reading the floor, ball-handling) each season he’s been in the league. Dedication to craft and his ability to quickly incorporate new skills distinguishes him from a number of peers who are drafted high, get paid and seem to flatline. The other thing to highlight is his emotional intelligence, and how deftly he’s assumed the alpha role in Minnesota while keeping teammates invested and feeling empowered. In the past few years he’s been asked to contend with Karl-Anthony Towns, Ruby Gobert, and Julius Randle, which is like a doctorate level crash course in managing complicated personalities that have driven other teammates crazy. Ant, however, found a comfortable rhythm with each of them. Last year’s team struggled for the first 30 games of the season as the Randle transition was being managed, but they still won 49 games. This year, there’s more continuity and 50 wins is very doable.
Bucks — OVER 43.5. Equally plain, equally simple, Giannis is too good to go 42-40 in the Eastern Conference. Also: I may regret creating a record of this, but I like the shape of this Bucks team more with Myles Turner than I did with the semi-washed version of Damian Lillard that Milwaukee had for the past two seasons. Lillard’s achilles injury aside, I’d rather have a stretch five and Cole Anthony/Ryan Rollins/Kevin Porter Jr. over another year of Giannis and Dame clumsily trying to make it work on offense while getting annihilated on the other end. The concern here was that Doc Rivers might have been wedded to last year’s doomed attempt to start Kyle Kuzma at the 3, but preseason games saw AJ Green (underrated!) starting at the 3 with Kuzma coming off the bench. That’s all I needed to see!
Rockets — OVER 52.5. Full disclosure: I initially had the Mavs here at 40.5, but the thought of investing emotionally in several months of D’Angelo Russell was too much for me to bear. So we’re looking elsewhere in Texas and I’m going over on the Rockets. For three weeks I’ve seen various NBA pundits take the under on this bet, and as a natural born contrarian, they finally pushed me too far. The defense will be top five in the league again, Kevin Durant will help them close games, Amen Thompson was great last year and should be even better, and Alperin Sengun is entering his prime as a first class offensive hub (or at least business class). Finally: I’m not giving up on Reed Sheppard, a player I desperately wanted the Wizards to draft at number two in 2024. I’m Team Sheppard, even after some extremely hairy moments on Tuesday night, and Team Ime Udoka, who is a complete maniac.
Pacers — UNDER 36.5. I was willing talk myself into the Pacers without Tyrese Haliburton, because that’s how much residual affection I have for their playoff run last year. Unfortunately, this is last year’s Pacers without Haliburton AND Myles Turner, and with some combination of Jay Huff/Obi Toppin/Isaiah Jackson expected to provide solutions up front. Throw in a T.J. McConnell injury for the first month of the season, and I don’t see this ending well.
Hornets — OVER 26.5. Charles Lee is a good coach. Brandon Miller should have the breakout season in year three that was derailed by injury in year two. Miles Bridges is very productive on the wing. Kalkbrenner and Knueppel have a chance to be plus-minus Batman and Robin for the rest of the decade. Colin Sexton is here, and in case you weren’t paying attention to Utah for the past two seasons, Colin Sexton is good! I’ve made it this far without mentioning LaMelo Ball, and yes, I do have serious concerns about putting any amount of faith in LaMelo Ball. On the other hand, scared money doesn’t make money. Hornets over, LaMelo over: Here’s to feeling alive in 2025.
I look forward to revisiting those picks in six months when I’m 5-0. In the meantime, thanks for reading, and here is video of Michael Jordan hitting the high pressure free throw at his Ryder Cup rental house.
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