Higher Education Enrollment Trends

This is an important story from The Wall Street Journal -- and a trend every student housing investor is well aware of. Student housing demographics are eroding, and *some* college towns are suffering as a result. BUT there's a critical nuance buried in this article ... Many colleges / college towns are still thriving. We are entering an era of "winners" and "losers." The big winners are (generally speaking) Power 5 conference schools and elite private schools. The big losers are (generally speaking) regional state schools and second-tier private schools. Here's important context from the article: "A Wall Street Journal analysis of 748 public four-year colleges and universities in all 50 states shows that full- and part-time enrollment at the most prominent state universities increased 9% in 2023 compared with 2015. At lesser-known regional state universities, enrollment fell 2%. The shift represents tens of thousands of students who have abandoned struggling college towns." The trend aligns with demographics: "The number of students graduating from American high schools is expected to start falling next spring, after reaching a record high this year. In 2007, the number of U.S. births peaked at 4.3 million and has been falling almost every year since." But eroding demographic tailwinds do not create evenly distributed impacts. Even in the same states. For example, the article cites opposite trends in the state of Illinois. -- "Enrollment at Western Illinois University’s Macomb campus has fallen 47% since 2010." -- "The flagship University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign campus is booming. Enrollment this past academic year was up 36% from 2010. Last fall, facing a shortage of space, the university doubled up students in dorm rooms." The same is true about aging demographics' impact on the broader housing market. We're gonna see more winners and losers among metro areas, cities and neighborhoods... but still ample opportunity in the right spots. The article speculates more students are opting to skip college and its pricey tuition costs, or that students are picking schools that will lead to better jobs. And while I'm sure there's a bit of that, it's overthinking this. Lots of students just wanna go to a good school with a vibrant atmosphere. Fun college towns. Good sports teams. Large state schools have catered to that demand by expanding, taking in students who -- in years past -- ended up elsewhere due to capacity constraints. While it's tacky to say this, the reality is that a lot (not all) of regional state schools and second-tier private schools are affectionally known as "backup plans." Fewer students need to take a backup plan when capacity expands at Option 1. To state the obvious: There are big implications on student housing, and leading operators have been tracking these trends for years. #studenthousing #college #housing https://lnkd.in/gWyHHz2n

There is a false narrative out there that American families are abandoning higher education in response to our failure to deliver value. According to the narrative, social mobility and college degree attainment is a myth. Not so fast. There is plenty of room for critique and for improvement in our ability to bring value to those trusting us with their aspirations, dreams, and their investments. As we head into college decision making season, here are the data. * FAFSA submissions for the high school Class of 2025 are running ahead of the previous year. * The Common App has reported a 4% increase in applications year over year, driven by first-generation and lower-income students. * Despite previous FAFSA completion declines, 18-year-old enrollment increased by 3.4%, and overall freshman enrollment saw a 5.5% rise. * College completion rates are at their highest levels, indicating improved institutional effectiveness. With a significant percentage of future jobs requiring postsecondary education, maintaining and increasing access to higher education is crucial. At Arizona State University we are committed to access and student success. Kent Hopkins Christian Osmena Nancy Gonzales Philip Regier Casey Evans Matt Lopez

More students in the U.S. are enrolled in at least one online course than entirely in person (IPEDS 2023 analysis). And, some are projecting that this year, for the first time ever, more students will study entirely online than entirely in person (The Hechinger Report). These milestones aren't just statistics—they're a signal. At Western Governors University, we’ve long known that the traditional campus model doesn’t work for everyone. Individuals including working adults, caregivers, military service members, and those living in rural communities need flexibility, affordability, and support systems that fit into their lives. Even young adults increasingly see the value of online learning—in fact, 18-24 year olds are our fastest-growing age demographic. What many people don’t understand, however, is that online education isn’t just a digital version of the classroom. At its best, it’s a fundamentally different model designed around the learner, not the institution. And it’s making a difference: Our graduates overwhelmingly say their credentials are worth the cost, earning degrees that lead to higher wages and contribute positively to their overall wellbeing. That impact reflects a core belief: Higher education should adapt to the learner, not the other way around. As more institutions recognize the realities facing today’s students, I’m hopeful we’ll see greater innovation that meets learners where they are, honors their lived experiences, and opens doors to opportunity for all.    #OnlineLearning #HigherEd #EdTech

This morning's higher ed headlines led with "Freshmen Enrollment Drops 5%." But the most salient and scary points were far beneath the headline: -18-year-old freshman enrollment fell 6.4% at public four years and 6.2% at private four years (a modest 1.7% drop at community colleges brought down the average to 5%) -White 18-year-old enrollment dropped 10% (the largest drop among demographic groups). -But highly selective public and private institutions performed particularly poorly on black freshmen enrollment (down a whopping 19.6% at highly selective public and 13.2% at highly selective private); they also did poorly on Multi-racial (down 14.8% and 13.7% respectively) and Hispanic (down 8.9% and 6.7% respectively). #highered #highereducation

Impact of Political Affiliation on College Enrollment Trends My NYU students Erica Connell, Emily Klein, Kevin Duque and Yui Kan Kong wrote an interesting paper about the impact of political affiliation on 4-year college enrollment. Using data from Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, and county voting data, they created the data for the chart below. The chart shows that colleges and universities in counties that shifted towards Republicans in presidential elections between 2012 and 2020, experienced a significant decline in enrollment. That was not the case in counties that shifted to democrats. In regression analysis the results hold even after controlling for county characteristics. The results are not entirely surprising given the growing evidence of skepticism and hostility of many Republican voters towards higher education. This trend could lead to a vicious cycle that will increase geographical inequality and political polarization. People in areas that are left behind are less likely to go to college which in turn, will make these regions fall behind even further. #college #enrollment #highereducation #politics #labormarket

We have been observing a significant decline in international student interest in the United States between January and April 2025, reaching levels not seen since the pandemic. This downturn is attributed to a combination of policy shifts and heightened geopolitical tensions. The economic implications are profound. International students contributed over $50 billion to the U.S. economy in 2023. A continued decline in enrollment threatens not only university revenues but also the broader economy, particularly in regions heavily reliant on higher education institutions. In response, global competitors are seizing the opportunity. Universities in countries like Germany, Ireland, and Singapore are actively courting students disillusioned by U.S. policies, offering streamlined visa processes and attractive post-study work opportunities. To remain competitive, U.S. institutions and policymakers must prioritize clear, consistent, and welcoming policies for international students. This includes transparent visa processes, robust support systems, and pathways to employment. The current trajectory serves as a stark reminder: the global education landscape is dynamic, and the U.S. must adapt to maintain its leadership position.

I recently connected with Robb Mandelbaum to discuss how the SCOTUS decision on affirmative action has affected business schools’ ability to sculpt a diverse class. His article https://lnkd.in/euzHfEFd supports what we have seen at MLT: the Court’s decision to bar race consideration in admissions has led to mixed results in diversity across top MBA programs, with fewer underrepresented minorities being admitted into the most selective institutions. I want to highlight some of the trends that we have observed with MLT’s MBA Fellows this past admissions season. Although the data covers one year, it represents a meaningful portion of the top Black and Latine students applying to the most selective graduate business schools. Our MBA Fellows represent highly qualified, extremely well-prepared applicants with extensive work experience. -- Fewer Applicants Accepted to the Most Selective MBA Programs: MLT’s data reveals that fewer Black and Latine applicants were admitted to the country’s most selective MBA programs. While 98% of our MBA Fellows were accepted into well-regarded business schools, admission rates to Tier 1 schools dropped by approximately 30%, and the number of Fellows admitted to Tier 1 schools decreased despite a larger MLT class size. In other words, many Fellows who historically would have been admitted to Tier 1 programs were only admitted to Tier 2 programs. -- High Test Scores Do Not Yield Similar Acceptance Rates: Following the SCOTUS decision, applicants with high test scores and qualifications are being denied at higher rates at top MBA programs. In 2024, Fellows with a 700+ GMAT had approximately a 75% chance of being admitted to at least one Tier 1 program, down from around 85% in the previous six years. The fact that applicants with impeccable credentials are not being admitted to the most selective schools at the same rates as before the SCOTUS decision on affirmative action is highly concerning. If this trend continues, these highly qualified MBA applicants will be disproportionately rejected, leading to a decrease in diversity at top institutions, consequently diminishing the diversity of the corporate talent pipeline. One positive trend we have observed is that schools are actively evaluating and refining their recruitment and yield strategies to enhance diversity in future classes. This effort demonstrates their commitment to and recognition of the value of diversity. We will continue to monitor these trends and observe how our MBA Fellows fare in admissions to the most selective MBA schools. #DEI #EqualOpportunity #Admissions

Can we stop calling them “nontraditional” already? More than 40% of college students are over 22. Nearly 70% are working while enrolled. One in five has kids. Many are first-gen, neurodivergent, multilingual. This isn’t a special population. IT IS THE POPULATION! And yet, too many colleges are still built for an 18-year-old who lives on campus, has no job, and no caregiving duties. That version of college is a fading snapshot. Today’s students are balancing work, family, and ambition. They’re not asking for shortcuts. They’re asking for systems that make sense. Affordable. Flexible. Real-world relevant. It’s time to retire the “nontraditional” label. These students are higher ed. And the future depends on serving them better. Read more from Forbes:

My sister's best friend called me the other day. Her son is a junior in high school who had narrowed his list of colleges to 3 top schools. She asked enrollment teams at those schools about career services and outcomes and all three pointed to the fact that they had a job board. She wasn’t sure how to interpret this, so called to ask my advice. A few takeaways for me: 1. In my conversation with her, it was apparent that understanding the difference in career services offerings was going to be a primary consideration for their decision. 2. As enrollment (or career) leaders, pointing to a job board, which literally every other school has, is not going to do anything to help your institution stand out, or differentiate you from competition. In fact, it might only leave prospects and families confused and frustrated. The reality is your career office likely has unique philosophies, strategies, services, employer partners and historical outcome data which is distinct, and can actually serve to differentiate your institution from others that prospects might be considering. Pointing to a job board when asked about career services is a disservice to your colleagues in career services, and will impact your funnel, if it hasn’t already. 3. This is just the beginning. Tyton Partners - Investment Banking recently wrote a piece suggesting this crop of high school students is the savviest set of college searchers we’ve ever seen, and that enrollment teams have ever faced. They are absolutely right — and so are their parents.  To enrollment teams - cozy up to your colleagues in career services and get to know their work because you’re going to want (and need) to tell their unique story. No doubt, having a unique career services narrative has become a strategic imperative to inform and inspire prospects and help your institution recruit the next generation of students. (@Career leaders - I don’t have a big network of enrollment leaders, please tag your colleagues in enrollment who need to hear this)

The American Council on Education and the MSI Data Project recently released a powerful new report titled “Pathways to Opportunity: Examining Students' Academic and Economic Outcomes at HBCUs, TCUs and MSIs.” The report’s findings are clear: these institutions offer critical access to education that enables economic mobility — especially when they receive more funding. Minority-Serving Institutions (#MSIs) enroll a significant percentage of all U.S. undergraduates, including over half of all students of color and a higher proportion of low-income, first-generation and historically marginalized students than other institutions. These schools include Historically Black Colleges and Universities (#HBCUs), Tribal Colleges and Universities (#TCUs), Hispanic-Serving Institutions (#HSIs) and Asian American and Native American Pacific Islander-Serving Institutions (#AANAPISIs). The data shows us that in addition to educating students from communities that often lack access to resources and opportunity, these schools also set their students on a path to success and economic empowerment. According to the report, low-income students at MSIs see greater upward financial mobility than those at non-MSIs, helping to close wealth and other long-standing opportunity gaps — and these benefits are even more noticeable when these schools are given federal funding. For example, graduation rates at eligible Predominantly Black Institutions (PBIs) that receive federal funding are nearly 6% higher than at eligible PBIs that do not receive funding. And graduates at these schools have median earnings nearly $4,000 higher than graduates from BPIs that do not receive this funding. Through Student Freedom Initiative (SFI), we’ve partnered with HBCUs, TCUs, HSIs and AANAPISIs to expand access to STEM education, provide students with flexible, income-based funding alternatives and expand the technical capacity at these schools to provide students with a modern, high-quality education. By taking a holistic approach to providing these schools with the resources they need and their students deserve, we can help propel the next generation of diverse leaders. Read more about the report here: https://lnkd.in/eg7tB8Qy