Exponential Roadmap Initiative

On Monday we highlighted CircularMonday, an initiative created to counter the Black Friday frenzy and draw attention to circular solutions that support a net zero, resource-efficient world. Today, as #BlackFriday lands and our inboxes fill with deals, we also noticed a new feature on #ChatGPT: a shopping agent offering to “do the digging for us” and find the best deals and gifts. While this may be convenient, it raises an important question: whose interests are these #AI agents optimising for? The consumer? Businesses with marketing budgets? Or the planet? We raised this concern in a whitepaper launched after New York Climate Week. As AI agents increasingly influence what we buy, eat, and how we live, they are becoming trusted advisors. Aligned with sustainability, they could make low-carbon living the easiest and most personalised choice. Left unaligned, they risk accelerating overconsumption and reinforcing unsustainable business models, a serious concern given that household consumption drives more than 60% of global greenhouse gas emissions. AI agents can negotiate, adapt, and make decisions on our behalf. They can build trust and shape behaviour — for better or for worse. Read the whitepaper “How AI Could Become the Next Great Climate Influencer” here: https://lnkd.in/d2YJmPaR

Earlier this week we gathered our network for an end-of-year reflection and a look ahead to 2026. These member gatherings have been a new addition for 2025 and they are definitely something we will carry with us into next year. Alongside a fantastic panel — Sara Nordbrand (Nordea), Fredrik Moberg (Albaeco) and Lisa B. (Google) — we discussed what they are bringing with them into the new year and what they are most looking forward to. We also shared reflections from COP30 together with Katarina Wangler Björk, Johan Falk and Ingmar Rentzhog, drawing out what this moment means for the work ahead. With the sun setting at 3 pm in Sweden it was not the easiest evening to capture on camera, but we are deeply grateful to our network for showing up and contributing so meaningfully to the conversation. Thank you to our speakers, guests and the whole team who made the night happen. 💚

The rising expectations on climate disclosure and transition planning leave companies facing an important question: how do you build a credible transition plan? Even though the scope of the CSDDD and CSRD has been narrowed to only the very largest companies, the underlying market need remains. Expectations for high quality plans continue to grow, while the guidance landscape stays fragmented and confidence in published plans varies widely. ERI has analysed twelve leading frameworks, from EU regulation to investor guidance and voluntary best practice, to understand where alignment exists and where fragmentation is still dominant. This shows where further development is needed. Our assessment illustrates how the ecosystem is moving from ideas to regulation and what this means for assessors, SMEs, investors and large companies. The conclusion is clear: we do not need new tools. We need to strengthen and connect the best ones. These include the ATP-COL, the IIGCC investor expectations, the Climateworks credibility guide and ERI’s SME ready templates. The direction of travel is consistent. Transition plans will need to be credible, comparable and actionable to meet rising expectations from regulators, investors and society. 🔗 Read the full whitepaper to learn more: https://lnkd.in/dDWa8aCJ 📺 Below, Johan Falk on transition plans during COP29:

#COP30 is over, but the work carries on. Our Chief Impact Officer, Katarina Wangler Björk, shares reflections from the past weeks — on the power of community, the early signs of a nature era, and why this is the time for positive tipping points. Swipe to read her notes. ➡️

Many panels, roundtables, meetings, and fishbowls later, our delegation is back from Belém and #COP30 with mixed feelings. The negotiations did not deliver everything we hoped for, and it is fair to acknowledge that disappointment. But the real story is happening outside the formal text — solutions are scaling, alliances are forming, and the momentum for a #netzero, nature-positive future cannot be stopped. In this article, Johan Falk explains why the future is exponential, how scaling solutions is still our chance to build a world fit for people and planet, and what the next action agenda is for climate as well as for ERI. A read full of hope and agency. Climate action cannot be stopped. 86 % of people want stronger action, and no veto can change that. Thanks to our partners and everyone on the ground who brought the #Mutirão spirit to life: The B Team. We Don't Have Time TED Countdown Goals House Kite Insights SBTI We Mean Business Coalition Climate High-Level Champions María Mendiluce Catherine McKenna Dan Ioschpe Adam Elman Ana Flávia Velloso Fiona Duggan Laurence Tubiana Ingmar Rentzhog Catarina Rolfsdotter-Jansson Luisa Orre Fredrika Klarén Caroline Reid Johan Rockström Christopher Neidl Emma Stewart, Ph.D. Karen Pflug Sriram Rajagopal Anna Celsing Klingberg Fredrik Nilzén Pär Larshans John Hunter Kerry Constabile Manveer Gill David Radermacher Anni Vuohelainen Butch Bacani Sarah Nelson Leah Seligmann Patricia Zurita Lindsay Levin Mathias Wikström and so many more. Our sense of determination and optimism is stronger than the disappointment.

Today marks #CircularMonday, the Monday before Black Friday. Circular Monday is a global campaign and community dedicated to making circular solutions visible, accessible, and the new normal. 🔄 Circularity is not only key to reducing emissions and protecting natural resources, it also makes strong business sense. Using resources efficiently and keeping them in the system reduces costs while reducing environmental impact — a win for both the planet and business. Many ERI members, including Houdini Sportswear and Ragn-Sells, are leading the way in circularity. Together with Cradlenet, ERI has developed the Circular Action Guide to help businesses of all sizes and stages create more resourceful, circular business models. Swipe through this summary from last year to learn more about the guide and how to put circularity at the heart of your business. Learn more about #CircularMonday: https://lnkd.in/dBRKqup Check out our guide: https://lnkd.in/dzNMgGum

A brief summary from one of our Crocodile Economy conversations at #COP30 with María Mendiluce (We Mean Business Coalition), Johan Falk (Exponential Roadmap Initiative), Anna Celsing Klingberg (Alfa Laval), Tim Lenton (University of Exeter) and Katarina Wangler Björk (Exponential Roadmap Initiative). 🐊 As COP30 draws to a close, the message from the crocodile economy data is clear and urgent: negotiators and decision-makers need to listen. Reducing emissions while strengthening the economy is not only possible — it is already happening. Those who fail to engage with this transition risk being left behind, and not just economically, but in terms of long-term resilience in a rapidly changing world. Continued investment in the fossil economy carries increasing risk. Beyond the climate consequences of crossing dangerous tipping points, fossil-dependent models are becoming less viable as new, low-carbon solutions scale. The companies and countries most likely to succeed are those that innovate, transition, and align with the emerging economy, one built on climate solutions, circularity, and long-term value creation. The crocodile economy data shows that this future-fit economy already exists and continues to expand. Negotiators and governments have a critical role to play: providing the infrastructure and policies that enable these solutions to scale will unlock a resilient, prosperous future for people, the planet, and the economy. Read the statement from We Mean Business Coalition, Exponential Roadmap Initiative, and 130+ other signatories calling for a roadmap to phase out fossil fuel: https://lnkd.in/ehYXmA97

Tomorrow is the last official day of COP30. I'm deeply concerned; for now, the national delegations have failed setting in motion a credible workplan for a global fossil-fuel phase-out or for ending deforestation - which were the two roadmaps that the Brasil COP Presidency set out to deliver at this COP. Carlos A. Nobre, Fatima Denton, Marina Hirota, Paulo Artaxo, Piers Forster and I have prepared a scientific assessment which we were able to communicate directly with President Lula yesterday: "We need to be as close as possible to absolute zero fossil fuel emissions by 2040, the latest by 2045. This means globally no new fossil fuel investments, removing all subsidies from fossil fuels and a global plan on how to phase in renewable and low-carbon energy sources in a just way, and phase out fossil fuels quickly. Finance from rich countries to developing countries is imperative. At COP 30 in Belém, it is no longer enough to restate that finance from developed to developing countries is imperative – it must be predictable, grant-based and consistent with a just transition and equity. The credibility of the Paris Agreement depends on it. Without scaling and reforming climate finance, developing countries cannot plan, cannot invest and cannot deliver the transitions needed for a shared survival. (...) The global curve of GHG emissions needs to bend next year, 2026, not sometime in the future. We need to start, now, to reduce CO2 emissions from fossil-fuels, by at least 5% per year. This must happen in order to have a chance to avoid unmanageable and extremely costly climate impacts affecting all people in the world. The global carbon budget, calculated by science, forms the backbone to guide the mitigation agenda and pace of emission reductions. The remaining carbon budget is now essentially consumed, down to 130 billion tons of CO2, equivalent to 3-4 years of global emissions at current rate. This scientific budget provides the basis for all serious climate policy. It is our accounting tool away from danger. Removing the carbon budget from the text, means removing reality from the COP." COP30 still has a choice – to protect people and life or the fossil fuel industry. Read our full statement here: https://lnkd.in/eqiT7WRR

If you’ve been following our work for a while, you know that climate solutions are always central to our agenda, and #COP30 and the We Don't Have Time hub was no exception. To reach net zero we need to reduce emissions, but doing so requires new, innovative, and cleaner products that can replace the fossil-based ones we rely on today. This means scaling the solutions that enable entire industries to cut emissions and shifting to products designed for a 1.5°C future. During a conversation moderated by Katarina Wangler Björk, companies focused on solutions — Stegra (Luisa Orre), Polestar (Fredrika Klarén), and Oatly (Caroline Reid) — shared how they are driving this shift. Caroline highlighted how the Climate Solutions Framework has helped Oatly scale with confidence, strengthening credibility in conversations with investors, customers, and other key stakeholders. The framework, developed by Exponential Roadmap Initiative and Oxford Net Zero defines a climate solution as a product or service that reduces emissions at a global level by offering significantly lower emissions than existing market alternatives. When these solutions replace established options, they accelerate the transition toward a net-zero economy. Stay tuned for more insights from Luisa and Fredrika. If you have a product or solution you believe could qualify under the Climate Solutions Framework, learn more and get in touch: https://lnkd.in/d95jAwFq